The Institute of Company Secretaries of India (ICSI)

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Are emerging economies like India and China sufficiently insulated against the upheavals in the global economy? What may be the steps to insulate emerging economies from the slowing global economy? How do corporates in emerging economies ensure performance when global economy is sharing symptoms of recession?

In order to answer these questions at the macro level we may have to distinguish between the financial economy and real economy and their respective degrees of integration into the world economy. The 1973 global oil crisis, for example, directly affected the real economies across the globe.

Mr. Marc Labonte, analyst in Macroeconomics, in his report to the American Congress reviews the effects of oil shocks on the economy. He points out that eight of the nine post-World War II recessions were accompanied by sharp increases in the price of oil. At the time of writing this article, oil prices on New York Mercantile exchange have risen to $ 114 per barrel from $ 30 per barrel five years ago. Of course, this has a component of a fall in the dollar value itself. The 1973 – 1975 recession followed the oil embargo. The double dip recession of 1980 – 1982 followed the second oil shock, which was caused by the revolution in Iran and Iran-Iraq war. The 1990 – 1991 recession followed the oil price spike caused by the Gulf War and the 2001 recession followed a sharp rise in oil prices from 1999 – 2000. This would seem to be a persuasive evidence that oil prices play a strong role in determining business cycle.

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The Institute of Company Secretaries of India Theme Paper



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